Scenarios as vehicle for strategic thinking and strategy development

Working with Scenarios

Using scenarios is a revolutionary alternative to traditional strategic planning because it recognizes the unpredictable nature of the future and makes uncertainty a part of the plan.

Very often we hear our clients say:  “Future developments within our industry are very uncertain and depend strongly on a multitude of technological, social and political interference." 

Scenario planning simplifies the the struggle to make sense of an abundance of possible data into a limited number of anticipated future conditions. It then ventures on to facilitate the development of strategic answers without neglecting the big picture.  The main characteristics of situations where a development of strategic scenarios make sense are:

  • When the industry is experiencing fundamental changes (social and technological changes resulting in political/regulatory adjustments)

  • When strong and differing opinions exist at the same time - within the industry and within the company - when it comes to beliefs of future developments

  • When there is and identified need to establish a common language and planning framework in order to increase the efficiency when discussing at various organisational levels

  • When there is a sense of being stuck in "one prevailing scenario", and it ha become increasingly difficult to generate new business opportunities

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THE PROCESS

Building scenarios are not enough. Equally important is what is done with the scenarios once they are developed.  A scenario process thus consists of two parts:

1.  Scenario building – covers conduct of data gathering, analysing, synthesising, and eventually construction of scenarios.

2.  Scenario deployment – centres on using scenarios to change the way decision are made, shifting the thinking of managers, re-framing decision making processes, and examining numerous strategic and organisational issues in the context of each scenario.

We often discuss Dominant Logic as an important ingredient in the process; the logic that has enabled past successes and at the same time may be a major obstacle for future development and change. Dominant Logic is

  • Our behaviour, focus and the way people act

  • A set of ideas about the company and the world

  • A reflection of our success

  • Something that is invisible, internal

  • An organisation’s genetic code

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ADDRESS

Leangbukta 36, 1392 Vettre, Norway

CONTACT

Tel: +47 932 09 777

Email:  info@giramar.consulting

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